Early Spring?

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Chestermere-Rocky View MLA Leela Aheer and Balaz Billy giving a thumbs up to an early Spring predicted in Balzac on Feb. 2nd, 2016

Local groundhog does not see his shadow

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Chestermere-Rocky View MLA Leela Aheer and Balaz Billy giving a thumbs up to an early Spring predicted in Balzac on Feb. 2nd, 2016

As far as winter weather goes, it seems we’ve been handed a pretty decent go around over these winter months. We were graced with a white Christmas, haven’t had too many of those -20 degree or colder days and we’ve had plenty of sun. But on February 2nd, all eyes turned to our furry forecaster in Balzac to find out whether winter is behind us or about to pounce.
According to folklore, if it is cloudy when a groundhog emerges from its burrow on this day, then the spring season will come early; if it is sunny, the groundhog will supposedly see its shadow and retreat back into its den, and winter weather will persist for six more weeks.
On February 2, 2016 at Blue Grass Nursery and Garden Centre just north of Calgary, around 8:10am, the ever popular Balzac Billy, known as the “Prairie Prognosticator”, made his way out of his burrow and to everyone’s pleasure, did not see his shadow – so an early spring for us!
The Groundhog Day celebration at Blue Grass Nursery and Garden Centre had live music, pancake breakfast and of course, Balzac Billy. A large crown came out for the event to hear the furry forecasters prediction – which when you have an 87% accuracy rate according to event organizers, hopefully Billy’s call for an early spring is correct.
However, a report in the Canadian Encyclopedia says, “Groundhog Day organizers maintain that the rodents’ forecasts are accurate 75 to 90% of the time. However, meteorological records prove that the groundhogs’ success rate is quite low. A study of weather data over several decades for 13 cities across Canada reveals there was an equal number of cloudy and sunny days on February 2. During that period, the groundhogs’ predictions were correct only 37% of the time; i.e., cold winter weather continued for several weeks following the appearance of sharp shadows on February 2, or were much milder than usual when that day was too cloudy for a shadow to be seen. However, for nearly two-thirds of the years the groundhogs’ forecasts turned out to be wrong. Given that in this case 33% accuracy can occur by chance, a score of 37% is not significant”.
The Groundhog Day concept first became popular in Canada in 1956 when Wiarton Willie became a household name for his early February weather predictions. Balzac Billy is one of two celebrity groundhogs in Canada. The other is Nova Scotia’s Shubenacadie Sam who also called for an early arrival of spring while Wiarton Willie of Ontario predicted six more weeks of winter.
So do we believe Billy? I think even though he does usually call it correctly, I’ll still hold off planting my flower bed until the end of May.

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About the author

Staff Writer

Staff Writer

In response to Canada's Online News Act and Meta (Facebook and Instagram) removing access to local news from their platforms, Anchor Media Inc encourages you to get your news directly from your trusted source by bookmarking this site and downloading the Rogue Radio App. Send your news tips, story ideas, pictures, and videos to info@anchormedia.ca


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